IDC Forecasts Healthy Worldwide Q3 1999 PC Demand with 24.8% Unit Growth over Q3 1998

IDC Forecasts Healthy Worldwide Q3 1999 PC Demand with 24.8% Unit Growth over Q3 1998 Consumer Demand Continues to Drive Global Sales FRAMINGHAM, Mass, September 8, 1999 - Unit volume in the worldwide PC market this quarter is expected to grow 24.8% year-over-year, according to data released today by International Data Corporation (IDC).

Following a strong second quarter this year, volume in Q3 is expected to rise 7.2% from Q2 1999.

Market expansion will continue to be led by robust global consumer demand for ever-cheaper PCs, healthy growth in Asian markets, and the strong U.S. economy. Japan, which exhibited the fastest year-over-year growth rate (39%) in Q2, is expected to have a strong performance in the second half of the year. Surging consumer demand, Internet shopping, and interest in small form factor desktop PCs will all contribute to projected Q3 year-over-year growth of 32%.

The United States, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), and Western Europe are also expected to show big demand for PCs. In Western Europe, Q3 year-over-year unit growth is pegged at 16.3%, with sequential volumes up slightly at 1.0%. In the United States, IDC expects sequential unit growth of 12.2% to 12.2 million units, which represents a hearty year-over-year growth rate of 28%. "Prices keep coming down and consumer interest in PCs keeps going up," said John Brown, research manager of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracking. "IDC believes that consumer demand combined with the traditional seasonal uptick in sales will result in very healthy global demand this quarter." The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) economic resurgence is expected to drive third-quarter growth to 34.3% over the same period last year with flat sequential growth.

The geographic growth pistons in the region -- China, India, Korea, and Australia -- will again drive growth this quarter. Although growth in Asia/Pacific is at an all time high, IDC still believes that issues including political unrest in India, Indonesia, and Malaysia as well as slowing growth in China could inhibit future expansion in the region. Vendors IDC believes the key to vendor growth this quarter is related to strategic alignment with growing consumer and small business segments.

In addition, positioning in the Western Europe, U.S., and Asia/Pacific markets will be important. Finally, solid Internet strategies and the ability to deliver portable PCs in volume will also be keys to growth. Vendors that appear to have the "right stuff" for growth this quarter are Dell, Gateway, IBM, and Apple. Table 1 Top 5 Vendors, U.S. PC Shipments, Second Quarter 1999 (Thousands of Units) |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | Q2 1999 | | Q2 1999 | Market | Q2 1998 | Market | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | Growth | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | Rank | Vendor | Shipments | Share | Shipments | Share | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 1999/98 | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | 1 | Dell | 1,809 | 16.6% | 1,143 | 14.3% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 58% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | 2 | Compaq | 1,798 | 16.5% | 1,157 | 14.4% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 55% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | 3 | IBM | 876 | 8.1% | 511 | 6.4% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 71% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | 4 | Gateway | 845 | 7.8% | 623 | 7.8% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 36% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | 5 | Hewlett-Packard | 841 | 7.8% | 628 | 7.8% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 34% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | | Others | 4,710 | 43.3% | 3,952 | 49.3% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 19% | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | | | | >-----------| |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> | | | | | | | | | All Vendors | 10,879 | 100.0% | 8,013 | 100.0% | | | | | | | | |---------+-----------------+-----------+--------+-----------+----------> >-----------| | | | 36% | | | >-----------| Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.

Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Data for Compaq shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; data for Acer includes Texas Instruments. Source: International Data Corporation, 1999 Table 2 Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Second Quarter 1999 (Thousands of Units) |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Q2 1999 | | Q2 1999 | Market | Q2 1998 | Market | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | | | | | Growth | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rank | Vendor | Shipments | Share | Shipments | Share | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 1999/98 | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | 1 | Compaq | 3,754 | 14.4% | 2,819 | 13.9% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 33% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | 2 | Dell | 2,827 | 10.9% | 1,818 | 9.0% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 55% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | 3 | IBM | 2,345 | 9.0% | 1,671 | 7.8% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 40% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | 4 | Hewlett-Packard | 1,678 | 6.4% | 1,239 | 6.1% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 35% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | 5 | NEC/PB NEC | 1,283 | 4.9% | 1,294 | 6.4% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | -1% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | Others | 14,152 | 54.3% | 11,522 | 56.9% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 23% | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | | | | >---------------------------------------| |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> | | | | | | | | | All Vendors | 26,040 | 100.0% | 20,266 | 100.0% | | | | | | | | |----------+-----------------+-----------+----------+-------------+--------- -> >---------------------------------------| | | | 28% | | | | Shipments are branded factory | | shipments and exclude OEM sales for | | all vendors.

| | | >---------------------------------------| Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Data for NEC/PBNEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, NEC, NEC Japan, NEC China, and ZDS. Data for Compaq shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; Data for Acer includes Texas Instruments. Source: International Data Corporation, 1999 About IDC International Data Corporation delivers accurate, relevant, and high-impact data and insight on information technology to help organizations make sound business and technology decisions.

IDC forecasts worldwide IT markets and adoption and technology trends, and analyzes IT products and vendors, using a combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local content through more than 500 analysts in more than 40 countries worldwide. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, and the financial community.

Additional information on IDC can be found on its Web site at http://www.idc.com. IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT media, research, and exposition company. # # # All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders. For more information, contact: John Brown 650-962-6478 jbrown@idc.com Patrick Gorman 508-935-4369 pgorman@idc.com To unsubscribe to this list at any time, please send an email to pryan@idc.com with "unsubscribe" in the subject line.

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Опубликовано: 9 сентября 1999 г.

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